15 February 2018 - A meta-model to predict uncertainties of N2O production

15 February 2018 - A meta-model to predict uncertainties of N2O production

Within the framework of the Global Research Alliance for Greenhouse Gas (GRA) and FACCE-JPI projects, INRA coordinated the evaluation and inter-comparison of 24 carbon-nitrogen models (16 for field crops and 12 for grasslands), considered individually and as an ensemble, on nine experimental sites on four continents. For the first time, this work shows the potential of the model ensemble approach to jointly predict crop production and N2O emissions intensity.

The CN-MIP (2014-2017) project coordinated by Sylvie Recous, INRA Research Director at the FARE laboratory, was developed within the European framework of the joint programming initiative on agriculture, food security and climate change (FACCE-JPI), and contributed to a large-scale action supported in France by the ANR and ADEME (24 models, 45 teams from 14 countries), coordinated by the integrative research group (IRG) of the Global Greenhouse Gas Research Alliance (GRA). This action focused on evaluating models for joint estimates of N2O productivity and emissions by comparing simulated data with experimental data.

In terms of results, none of the models used had consistently higher performance than other models, which justifies the ensemble approach. These simulations estimate the ability of models to take into account cropping practices and the uncertainty associated with these predictions on greenhouse gas mitigation. In terms of prospects, this work will contribute to the improvement of national greenhouse gas inventories, taking advantage of ensemble predictions, as well as to the improvement of some models by comparing their structures, parametrization and performance under a wide range of pedoclimatic and management conditions.

Read: Ehrhardt F et al. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions. Global Change Biology 2018, 24, e603-e616. DOI

Contact: Dr Sylvie Recous, sylvie.recous@inra.fr

Modification date : 06 June 2023 | Publication date : 15 February 2018 | Redactor : INRA / G. Paës